After Four Long Years, It’s Finally A Fair Question
Exactly four years ago, in September of 2008, the San Carlos housing market was hitting on all cylinders. While there were grumblings from some parts of the country on the start of a housing downturn, the San Carlos housing market was moving forward like a tank on a battlefield, crushing everything in its path. That all changed on Monday, October 6, 2008, when the stock market managed to lose 18.1% of its value in just six days, and thus began what was to be the largest housing downturn since the Great Depression. San Carlos was suddenly not immune. To say that the following year, 2009, was a dreadful year for San Carlos real estate, is a massive understatement. Prices dropped significantly. While we were not in a free-fall like some other peninsula cities, the drops were hard to watch. Toward the end of 2009, San Carlos found a bottom to its housing market and it started to stabilize in 2010. By 2011, things were looking up and there was an end in sight. And now, almost exactly four years away from the stock market tumble, San Carlos has regained nearly all of its losses. 2012 was and still is a year of historic recovery for San Carlos. Take a look at the numbers below. You will see the numbers during the high-water mark era are now mirroring the numbers of the last four months for our market.
High-Water Mark
The high-water mark for San Carlos for pricing is generally considered to be October 2007-October 2008. Here is a snapshot of the market during these twelve months:
Total Closed Sales: 271
Average Home Sales Price: $1,120,093
Average Price Per Square Foot: $628
Total Sales Volume: $301,769,212
Low-Water Mark
The low-water mark for San Carlos properties is generally considered to be January 2009 – January 2010. Below is a snapshot of the market during these twelve months:
Total Closed Sales: 236
Average Home Sales Price: $928,560
Average Price Per Square Foot: $529
Total Sales Volume: $219,140,212
The Last 365 Days
Below are the numbers for the San Carlos housing market for the last 365 days:
Total Closed Transactions: 304
Average Sales Price: $1,011,490
Average Price Per Square Foot: $553
Total Sales Volume: $309,067,527
The Last Four Months
Total Closed Sales: 112
Average Sales Price: $1,130,415
Average Price Per Square Foot: $585
Total Sales Volume: $126,606,045
Moving Forward
In fairness, the last section above details only four months, not an entire twelve month period. However, I believe it is an accurate portrayal of our market. We have many properties with a pending status that will finish well in advance of the average numbers detailed for the Last Four Months, above. Additionally, some of these pending properties may set the new pricing standard for 2/1s and 3/2s in San Carlos.
2 Comments
Hi Bob,
It looks like the average price/sq ft would still have to rise another 7% (from $585 to $628) to reach 2008 levels. Is this a meaningul statistic to say that we are still 7% below the highs, or am I putting too much emphasis on one number?
Todd
Hi Todd,
It’s a fair question, but I maintain the market is at the previous high water mark, and here’s why: First, while price per square foot is a form a measurement of the market, it usually needs to be coupled with other telling factors. Price per square foot is something that many people get held up on, but at the end of the day it’s primary use is with commercial real estate, not residential. Also, I went back and looked at the average size of the home to sell during the High Water Mark, compared with the average size of the homes to sell in the last 120 days. The High Water Mark average square footage average was 1,832. The average square footage on homes in the last 120 days was 2,026. This is important because smaller homes are going to show a higher price per square foot.
Thanks again for the post.
Bob