A Loss for Words
There are only so many posts that can be written about the searing hot San Carlos market. There comes a time when you simply run out of adjectives and have no words to describe the overpowering strength of our market. Each time it appears to be leveling off, another massive wave picks it up and takes it to heights that were once thought impossible. The scary part is that there is seemingly no end in sight. We are entering our fourth consecutive year of record gains. From what we have seen so far in 2015, there is no reason to believe this is going to stop any time soon. Our last major boom was 2005-2007. During that period of growth you could see possible outliers that would one day create problems. Negative amortization loans, stated income and under regulation in the mortgage and banking industry, are just a few of the culprits. This market is different. The foundation of this uprising is built on strict regulation and cash. It is aided by cheap money, massive foreign investment, a thriving local economy and four consecutive years of low inventory. Now, no one should be naive enough to believe this is unending (although it may feel that way to many buyers). The market will level out eventually. The question everyone is asking centers around just how far along we may be in this upward moving market. Does it have a year left? Two? Five? It’s a tough question to answer. The one thing that I can tell you is that we seemingly have ten buyers for every available home in San Carlos. Without a substantial influx of inventory or a noticeable shift in the economy, it will be tough to knock the current market off its current trajectory.
Tracking the San Carlos Market Over the Past 75 Years
In order to help put the current market into perspective, I have assembled a table below which shows the approximate value of a standard three bedroom, two bath home at 1,500 square feet, on a 5,000 square foot lot in the flats of San Carlos.
| Year | Average Price | Percentage Increase |
|---|---|---|
| 1940 | $10,000 | n/a |
| 1950 | $17,000 | 70% |
| 1960 | $29,000 | 70% |
| 1970 | $60,000 | 106% |
| 1980 | $175,000 | 191% |
| 1990 | $310,000 | 77% |
| 2000 | $620,000 | 100% |
| 2010 | $925,000 | 56% |
| 2015 | $1,500,000 | 62% |
You can come to your own conclusions from the information above, but we are looking at the average 3/2 in the flats of San Carlos hitting $3,000,000 by 2025. The other takeaway is that while the San Carlos market is in overdrive, the historical data shows that it has always been a market the produces at a phenomenal rate.
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